I can’t believe this fight is finally happening. Much like last month’s 187, I figured another injury would cast a nasty spell on this card.
This fight is harder than hell to predict. If Cain was 4-6 months out from fighting, I’d pick him, without question. Considering that he hasn’t fought since October 2013, I think forecasting the outcome of this puppy is more blurry than people realize. Nobody has a fucking clue how Cain will fight after nearly being out of the octagon for two years. I do think Cain is going to win by TKO. I don’t possibly see this going the full five rounds unless both guys gas out (prior Cain’s injuries, he had the best cardio of all heavyweights in the division).
How will Cain fight after being out for so long?
How will Cain react to if/when he gets in Werdum’s guard?
Will Werdum’s BJJ effectively stifle Cain’s wrestling?
Can Werdum keep up with Cain’s pace?
Questions inbound that’ll finally be answered tonight.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Cain loses, and then comes back in a few months and fucks Werdum up. Anybody can get caught with a good strike; Cain was caught back in November 2011 in the first ever UFC on Fox when Junior dos Santos beat him for the heavyweight title.
Here’s the kicker — we know what we are getting with Fabricio Werdum. He’s fought in recent memory (November 2014 vs. Mark Hunt). With Cain, no fucking clue.
Cain Velasquez via round 2 or 3 TKO