Who doesn’t love free UFC cards? The only thing I don’t like are the random events that take place in the middle of the week. Seems like overkill to me, but that’s another topic for another time. Tonight’s Lightweight main event has many title implications on the line. If Josh Thomson defeats Benson Henderson, he’ll get a crack at the incumbent champion of the 155 lb. division in Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis. If Henderson wins, Gilbert Melendez will likely get that illustrious number one contender spot. Sweet deal, right?

Yves Jabouin vs. Eddie Wineland
Wineland is a fun fighter with killer instinct. Jabouin is a fun fighter, too — top 40 in his weight class, and has zero finishing skills. I’ll enjoy this for as long as it lasts, but Wineland really should have his way with Jabouin. Chances are that Jabouin will get busted up by Wineland with his non-stellar boxing defense and will end up on the wrong end of a big KO win. Eddie Wineland by KO, round 2

Alex Caceres vs. Sergio Pettis
Speaking of Anthony Pettis, enter his little brother Sergio. Part of me feels like this is too much too soon for Sergio Pettis. Caceres may not have the record to show it, but I think he’s in the top 20 at bantamweight. A win over him right now would be an announcement that Pettis was already in the conversation as one of the best 135ers in the world (not way up the list, but in the conversation). Pettis beat Will Campuzano in a short notice affair, but it was hardly a definitive result. I expect a similar fight, but with him on the wrong side of the judges this time around. Alex Caceres by Decision

Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
This is one of those fights where I just don’t know what is going to happen. The version of Cerrone that fought Evan Dunham looked like a complete crusher, especially compared to the version of Cerrone that fought Rafael dos Anjos. If that’s the same guy that shows up to fight Adriano Martins, I expect Martins will have a very bad night. But that version of Cerrone is not a guarantee and Martins, for his limited exposure, is a big, technical lightweight. He’s got crisp, powerful boxing and showed off a beastly ground game against Daron Cruickshank. However, that was Daron Cruickshank. If Cerrone can fight the fight that Cruickshank should have and stay on the outside and make use of a kicking game that Martins doesn’t have, I expect he’ll get the win here. Donald Cerrone by Decision

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Stipe Miocic
As usual, it depends what Napao shows. If he takes it to the floor, he should be able to submit Miocic. If he wants to strike, I think he gets blasted to high heaven in an early exchange. And GG don’t like getting hit. Stipe Miocic by TKO, round 1

Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
For whatever reason this fight feels like one where Thomson can pull off the upset, but maybe that’s just me overthinking things. The “worst camp of my life” is definitely a legitimate concern and I don’t pass it off as head games, and all signs point to Henderson being able to win this comfortably. I think Thomson is a good striker but not great, and he might stand to even outbox Ben Henderson, who hasn’t really developed even a good jab at this stage in his career. Grappling and wrestling definitely goes to Bendo, and his cardio is obviously excellent. Bendo was shellshocked following his quick submission loss to Pettis back in August. I see no way this ends inside the distance, but I do see Benson Henderson by unanimous decision

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